Appeal to probability

An appeal to probability is a justification based on probability, sometimes regarded as a logical fallacy, when an unwarranted assumption that something will happen, because it can happen, or when the odds of an occurrence are unrealistically played down in lieu of appropriate precaution.

Although a fallacy when used in absolute terms, probability can be used for many beneficial purposes. The fields of statistics, insurance, risk management, and urban planning, all use probability to determine the likelihood of risk or negative outcomes, or gain and positive outcomes.

Examples

Some examples are:

"It doesn't matter if I get myself into debt. If I play the lottery enough, I will win the jackpot, and then I can pay off all my debts."
This argument assumes a best-case scenario, however problem gambling is an urge to gamble despite negative consequences or the desire to stop and is often defined by the harm suffered as opposed to the gambling. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders' (DSM-IV) definition of pathological gambling is widely accepted and a basis for research and clinical practice internationally. Trying to win back gambling losses by gambling more is known as chasing. As debt builds, a subject may turn to theft, or selling drugs. Pressure from bookies or loan sharks can make the losing streak a difficult ordeal and compulsive gambling is often very detrimental to personal relationships. A study of Americans men found that 10% of compulsive gamblers, as opposed to only 2% of men who do not gamble, had two or more prior marriages.[1] Evidence from studies indicates that pathological gamblers verly likely exhibit other psychiatric problems concurrently, including substance abuse, mood disorders, anxiety disorders, and personality disorders.[2]
A problem gambler who does not receive treatment may contemplate suicide when desperate,[3] evidenced by increased suicidal ideation and attempts as compared to the general population.[4][5][6] Comorbid substance abuse[7][8] or mental disorders increase the risk of suicide.[9] An Australian study found that 17% of suicidal patients admitted to The Alfred Hospital's emergency department were problem gamblers.[10] Early onset increases the lifetime risk of suicide[11] and related attempts are usually made by older pathological gamblers.[9]
"When football becomes popular in a town, hooliganism becomes a major problem. Thus, if we allow a football team in our town, we will be overrun by hooligans."
This argument assumes a worst-case scenario and fails to recognize that correlation does not imply causation.
"Van Gogh was an artistic genius, and yet he died penniless. I am a penniless artist, therefore I am a genius." [12]
This weak analogy, the so-called Van Gogh fallacy, fails to recognize the class of famous artists is considerably smaller than that of marginalized artists.[13] It also confuses correlation with causation.[13]

See also

References

  1. ^ Eidsmoe year=1991, John. Legalized Gambling; America's Bad Bet. 
  2. ^ Black DW, Shaw M (2008). "Psychiatric Comorbidity Associated with Pathological Gambling". Psychiatric Times 25 (12). http://www.psychiatrictimes.com/impulse-control-disorders/article/10168/1342537. 
  3. ^ Paul, Laura (2004). "High Stakes: Teens Gambling With Their Futures". DisneyFamily.com. http://teenagerstoday.com/resources/articles/highstakes.htm. 
  4. ^ Moreyra, P.; Ibanez, A.; Saiz-Ruiz, J.; Nissenson, K.; Blanco, C. (2000). "Review of the phenomenology, etiology and treatment of pathological gambling". German Journal of Psychiatry 3 (2): 37–52. 
  5. ^ Pallanti, S. (2006). "Pathological Gambling". Clinical Manual of Impulse-Control Disorders: 251–289. 
  6. ^ Volberg, R. A. (2002). "The epidemiology of pathological gambling". Psychiatric Annals 32 (3): 171–178. 
  7. ^ Kausch, O (2003). "Patterns of substance abuse among treatment-seeking pathological gamblers". Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment 25 (4): 263–270. doi:10.1016/S0740-5472(03)00117-X. PMID 14693255. 
  8. ^ Ladd, G. T.; Petry, N. M. (2003). "A comparison of pathological gamblers with and without substance abuse treatment histories". Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology 11 (3): 202–209. doi:10.1037/1064-1297.11.3.202. PMID 12940499. 
  9. ^ a b Kausch, O (2003). "Suicide attempts among veterans seeking treatment for pathological gambling". Journal of Clinical Psychiatry 64 (9): 1031–1038. doi:10.4088/JCP.v64n0908. PMID 14628978. 
  10. ^ Hagan, Kate (21 April 2010). "Gambling linked to one in five suicidal patients". The Age (Melbourne). http://www.theage.com.au/national/gambling-linked-to-one-in-five-suicidal-patients-20100420-srri.html. 
  11. ^ Kaminer, Y.; Burleson, J. A.; Jadamec, A. (2002). "Gambling behavior in adolescent substance abuse". Substance Abuse 23 (3): 191–198. doi:10.1080/08897070209511489. PMID 12444352. 
  12. ^ Pigliucci, Massimo (2010). Nonsense on Stilts: How to Tell Science from Bunk. p. 295. ISBN 9780226667867. LCCN 2009049778. http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=aC8Baky2qTcC&lpg=PA295&pg=PA295. 
  13. ^ a b Warburton, Nigel (2007). Thinking from A to Z. p. 142. ISBN 9780415222815. LCCN 2010293612. http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=yNjM75ItNKAC&lpg=PA142&pg=PA142. 
Correlative-based fallacies
Deductive fallacies
Inductive fallacies
Vagueness and ambiguity
Equivocation
Questionable cause
List of fallacies · Other types of fallacy